RELM

Overview of the Working Group for the Development of Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM)

Edward H. Field
U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena

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Earthquake Likelihood Model Testing

D. Schorlemmer, M. C. Gerstenberger, S. Wiemer, D. D. Jackson,
and D. A. Rhoades

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RELM Testing Center

D. Schorlemmer, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
M. C. Gerstenberger, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena

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Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California

Peter Bird and Zhen Liu
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles

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Real Time Forecasts through an Earthquake Clustering Model Constrained by the Rate-and- State Constitutive Law: Comparison with a Purely Stochastic ETAS Model

Rodolfo Console, Maura Murru, Flaminia Catalli, and Giuseppe
Falcone

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Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California

John E. Ebel, Daniel W. Chambers, Alan L. Kafka, and Jenny A.
Baglivo

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Short-term Aftershock Probabilities: Case Studies in California

M. C. Gerstenberger, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena
L. M. Jones, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena
S. Wiemer, ETH Zürich

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High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California

Agnès Helmstetter, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University
Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California—Los Angeles

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A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics

James R. Holliday, Chien-chih Chen, Kristy F. Tiampo, John B.
Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, and Andrea Donnellan

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A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity

Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles
Yufang Rong, AIR-Worldwide Corporation

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Time-independent and Time-dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment for the State of California: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Model 1.0

Mark D. Petersen, Tianqing Cao, Kenneth W. Campbell, and Arthur D.
Frankel

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Application of the EEPAS Model to Forecasting Earthquakes of Moderate Magnitude in Southern California

David A. Rhoades
GNS Science

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Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California

Zheng-Kang Shen, David D. Jackson, and Yan Y. Kagan
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California-Los Angeles

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Methods for Evaluating Earthquake Potential and Likelihood in and around California

Steven N. Ward
Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California—Santa Cruz

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ALM: An Asperity-based Likelihood Model for California

Stefan Wiemer and Danijel Schorlemmer1
ETH Zürich, Switzerland

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