Italy Testing Region

The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) proposed Italy to be the first testing region of the CSEP EU Testing Center. The Italy Testing Regions was established during a kick-off workshop held at INGV in Rome in October 2008 and attended by more than 50 researchers and model developers from around the globe. A Memorandum of Understanding describes the set-up for the prospective testing of probabilistic earthquake forecast models for Italy at the CSEP EU testing center. The prospective testing started on 1 August 2009 with more than 30 models from 10 different modelers or modeler groups. A special volume on the Italy Testing Region is in preparation for Annals of Geophysics.


Testing Area

The figure on the right-hand side shows the collection (dark gray) and testing (light gray) areas used for CSEP forecasting experiments in the Italian testing region. On the left-hand side, the probability for detecting earthquakes of local magnitude 3.7 and above is shown (Schorlemmer et al., 2009, in press).

Download high-resolution image of collection/testing area:

Node Lists for the collection/testing areas: (lon,lat) pairs, Gnuzipped ASCII

Border of collection/testing area as polygon: (lon,lat) pairs, ASCII

Forecast Templates

The forecast templates are in XML-based ForecastML format.
to be used for 1-day and 3-month models (M=4-9)

to be used for 5-year and 10-year models (M=5-9)

Earthquake Catalogs

Bollettino Sismico: Authoritative Data Source, since 16 Apr 2005

This is the official earthquake catalog against which forecasts will be evaluated. It will be provided by the CSEP testing center in 13-column ZMAP/CSEP ASCII format, and in QuakeML format.

The original catalog can be found at

The catalog is published as two data chunks per month, in GSE2.0 bulletin format, according to the following naming convention:

! with DD=01 or DD=16.

Supplementary Catalogs

Two additional earthquake catalogs are provided, which cover a longer time interval: CSI 1.1, and CPTI08. These are provided in their original format, if not accessible through their own web site, and in (gnuzipped) 13-column ZMAP/CSEP ASCII format. Further information regarding these two catalogs can be found in the document SummaryItalyCataloguesUpdate.pdf (updated 22 September 2009).