Italy Testing Region

The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) proposed Italy to be the first testing region of the CSEP EU Testing Center. The Italy Testing Regions was established during a kick-off workshop held at INGV in Rome in October 2008 and attended by more than 50 researchers and model developers from around the globe. A Memorandum of Understanding describes the set-up for the prospective testing of probabilistic earthquake forecast models for Italy at the CSEP EU testing center. The prospective testing started on 1 August 2009 with more than 30 models from 10 different modelers or modeler groups. A special volume on the Italy Testing Region is in preparation for Annals of Geophysics.


Forecasts


Testing Area

The figure on the right-hand side shows the collection (dark gray) and testing (light gray) areas used for CSEP forecasting experiments in the Italian testing region. On the left-hand side, the probability for detecting earthquakes of local magnitude 3.7 and above is shown (Schorlemmer et al., 2009, in press).

Download high-resolution image of collection/testing area:

Node Lists for the collection/testing areas: (lon,lat) pairs, Gnuzipped ASCII

Border of collection/testing area as polygon: (lon,lat) pairs, ASCII


Forecast Templates

The forecast templates are in XML-based ForecastML format.
to be used for 1-day and 3-month models (M=4-9)

to be used for 5-year and 10-year models (M=5-9)


Earthquake Catalogs

Bollettino Sismico: Authoritative Data Source, since 16 Apr 2005

This is the official earthquake catalog against which forecasts will be evaluated. It will be provided by the CSEP testing center in 13-column ZMAP/CSEP ASCII format, and in QuakeML format.

The original catalog can be found at

http://bollettinosismico.rm.ingv.it

The catalog is published as two data chunks per month, in GSE2.0 bulletin format, according to the following naming convention:

!http://bollettinosismico.rm.ingv.it/YYYY_MM_DD/YYYY_MM_DD.gse with DD=01 or DD=16.

Supplementary Catalogs

Two additional earthquake catalogs are provided, which cover a longer time interval: CSI 1.1, and CPTI08. These are provided in their original format, if not accessible through their own web site, and in (gnuzipped) 13-column ZMAP/CSEP ASCII format. Further information regarding these two catalogs can be found in the document SummaryItalyCataloguesUpdate.pdf (updated 22 September 2009).