The ROC-test

The ROC-test The Relative/Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC)-test measures how well a forecast ranks bins in terms of each bin's potential to host a future target earthquake. ROC trajectories -- tradeoff curves between hit rate and false alarm rate -- are computed for the selected forecast and indicate if the forecast has given a bin ranking significantly better than a random-guess ranking strategy. The ROC-test does not consider the forecasted or observed number of earthquakes.