Publications

2026

Pablo Iturrieta, William H. Savran, Marcus Herrmann, José A. Bayona, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Kenny Graham, Philip J. Maechling, Warner Marzocchi, Leila Mizrahi, Danijel Schorlemmer, Francesco Serafini, Fabio Silva, and Maximilian J. Werner (2026). floatCSEP: An application to deploy and conduct reproducible prospective earthquake forecasting experiments. Journal of Open Source Software, 11(118), 9408, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.09408

Stockman S., Daniel, J., Werner, M. J., (2026) EarthquakeNPP: Benchmark datasets for Earthquake Forecasting with Neural Point Processes. TMLR (2026). https://openreview.net/pdf?id=dIcNAg6ZuZ

2025

Serafini F., Bayona, J. A., Silva, F., Savran, W., Stockman, S., Maechling, P. J., Werner, M. J., (2025) A benchmark database of ten years of prospective next-day earthquake forecasts in California from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Sci Data 12, 1501 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05766-3

2024

Mizrahi, L., Dallo, I., van der Elst, N., Christophersen, A., Spassiani, I., Werner, M. J., Iturrieta, P., Bayona, J.A., Iervolino, I., … , & Wiemer, S. (2024). Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions. Reviews of Geophysics, 62, e2023RG000823. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023RG000823

Iturrieta, P., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Taroni, M., Falcone, G., Cotton, F., Khawaja, A., Savran, W. H., & Marzocchi, W. (2024). Evaluation of a Decade‐Long Prospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in Italy. Seismological Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230247

2023

Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Iturrieta, P., Gerstenberger, M. C., Graham, K. G., Marzocchi, W., Schorlemmer, D., & Werner, M. J. (2023). Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models More Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy. The Seismic Record, 3 (2): 86–95. https://doi.org/10.1785/0320230006

Khawaja, A. M., Hainzl, S., Schorlemmer, D., Iturrieta, P., Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J. & Marzocchi, W. (2023). Statistical power of spatial earthquake forecast tests. Geophysical Journal International, 233(3), 2053-2066. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad030

Herrmann, M. and Marzocchi, W. (2023). Maximizing the forecasting skill of an ensemble model. Geophysical Journal International, 234(1), 73–87. 10.1093/gji/ggad020

2022

Khawaja, M. Asim, Schorlemmer, D., Hainzl, S., Iturrieta, P., Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Multi‐Resolution Grids in Earthquake Forecasting: The Quadtree Approach. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(1), 333-347. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220028

Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac018

Husker, A., Werner, M. J., Bayona, J. A., Santoyo, M. & Corona‐Fernandez, R. D., (2022). A Test of the Earthquake Gap Hypothesis in Mexico: The Case of the Guerrero Gap. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 113(1), 468-479. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220094

Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., Parsons, T., Beroza, G., & Chiaraluce, L. (2022). On the Use of High-Resolution and Deep-Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127, e2022JB025202. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025202

Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J. & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A python toolkit for earthquake forecast developers. Seismological Research Letters, 93(5), 2858-2870. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220033

Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., & Maechling, P. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit For Earthquake Forecast Developers, Journal of Open Source Software, 7(69), 3658. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03658

Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Lindgren, F., Werner, M. J., & Main, I. G. (2022). Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment. Geophysical Journal International, 230(2), 1419-1440. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac124

2021

Mancini, S., M. J. Werner, M. Segou, & B. Baptie (2021). Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing‐Induced Seismicity Using an Injection‐Rate Driven ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 92, 3471-3481. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200454

2020

Bayona, J. A., Savran, W., Strader, A., Hainzl, S., Cotton, F. & Schorlemmer, D. (2020). Two global ensemble seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information. Geophysical Journal International, 224, 1945-1955. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa554

Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. https://doi:10.1785/0120200026

Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Parsons, T. (2020). The Predictive Skills of Elastic Coulomb Rate-and-State Aftershock Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1736-1751. https://doi:10.1785/0120200028

2019

Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Cattania, C. (2019). Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124 (8), 8626-8643. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB017874

2018

Michael, A. J. & Werner, M. J. (2018). Preface to the focus section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New results and future directions. Seismological Research Letters 89(4), 1226-1228. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180161

Rhoades, D. A., Christophersen, A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Liukis, M., Silva, F., Marzocchi, W., Werner, M. J., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). Highlights from the first ten years of the New Zealand earthquake forecast testing center. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1229-1237. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180032

Cattania, C., Werner, M.J., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Liukis, M., Savran, W., Christophersen, A., & Helmstetter A., et al. (2018). The forecasting skill of physics‐based seismicity models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180033