Publications
2022
Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Lindgren, F., Werner, M. J., & Main, I. G. (2022). Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment. Geophysical Journal International 230(2), 1419-1440, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac124
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J. & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A python toolkit for earthquake forecast developers. Seismological Research Letters., https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220033
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac018
Savran, W., Werner, M., Schorlemmer, D., and Maechling, P. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit For Earthquake Forecast Developers, Journal of Open Source Software, 7(69), 3658, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03658
2021
Mancini, S., M. J. Werner, M. Segou, and B. Baptie (2021). Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic FracturingâInduced Seismicity Using an InjectionâRate Driven ETAS Model, Seismological Research Letters 92 3471-3481. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200454
2020
Bayona, J. A., W. Savran, A. Strader, S. Hainzl, F. Cotton, and D. Schorlemmer (2020). Two global ensemble seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information, Geophysical Journal International, 224, 1945-1955. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa554
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. https://doi:10.1785/0120200026
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Parsons, T. (2020). The Predictive Skills of Elastic Coulomb Rate-and-State Aftershock Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1736-1751. https://doi:10.1785/0120200028