Publications
2023
Khawaja, A. M., Hainzl, S., Schorlemmer, D., Iturrieta, P., Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Werner, M. and Marzocchi, W., 2023. Statistical power of spatial earthquake forecast tests. Geophysical Journal International, 233(3), pp.2053-2066. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad030
Herrmann, Marcus. and Marzocchi, W. (2023). Maximizing the forecasting skill of an ensemble model. Geophysical Journal International, 234(1), 73–87. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggad020
2022
Khawaja M. Asim, Schorlemmer D., Hainzl, S., Iturrieta, P., Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J.m; Multi‐Resolution Grids in Earthquake Forecasting: The Quadtree Approach. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2022; https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220028
Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2022). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, 229(3), 1736-1753, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac018
Husker, A., Werner, M. J., Bayona, J. A., Santoyo, M. and Corona‐Fernandez, R. D., 2022. A Test of the Earthquake Gap Hypothesis in Mexico: The Case of the Guerrero Gap. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220094
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., Parons, T., Beroza, G., & Chiaraluce, L. (2022). On the Use of High-Resolution and Deep-Learning Seismic Catalogs for Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts: Potential Benefits and Current Limitations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127, e2022JB025202. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB025202
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J. & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A python toolkit for earthquake forecast developers. Seismological Research Letters., https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220033
Savran, W., Werner, M., Schorlemmer, D., and Maechling, P. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit For Earthquake Forecast Developers, Journal of Open Source Software, 7(69), 3658, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.03658
Serafini, F., Naylor, M., Lindgren, F., Werner, M. J., & Main, I. G. (2022). Ranking earthquake forecasts using proper scoring rules: binary events in a low probability environment. Geophysical Journal International 230(2), 1419-1440, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac124
2021
Mancini, S., M. J. Werner, M. Segou, and B. Baptie (2021). Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing‐Induced Seismicity Using an Injection‐Rate Driven ETAS Model, Seismological Research Letters 92 3471-3481. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200454
2020
Bayona, J. A., W. Savran, A. Strader, S. Hainzl, F. Cotton, and D. Schorlemmer (2020). Two global ensemble seismicity models obtained from the combination of interseismic strain measurements and earthquake-catalogue information, Geophysical Journal International, 224, 1945-1955. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa554
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. https://doi:10.1785/0120200026
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Parsons, T. (2020). The Predictive Skills of Elastic Coulomb Rate-and-State Aftershock Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1736-1751. https://doi:10.1785/0120200028
2019
Mancini, S., Segou, M., Werner, M. J., & Cattania, C. (2019). Improving physics‐based aftershock forecasts during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124 (8), 8626-8643