Select versions of operational-type earthquake forecasting models demonstrate consistency with prospective decadal observations in California

A recent study published in Nature Communications demonstrates that next-day seismicity forecasts, generated by well-established, operational-type models, are consistent with prospective decadal observations in California. This provides robust evidence supporting their use in public operational earthquake forecasting systems.

Government agencies, civil protection authorities, and scientific organisations that use (or are considering using) operational earthquake forecasts will benefit from the recommendations, software tools, and benchmarking data presented in the article.

This work is the result of years of sustained international collaboration among nine scientific institutions within the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. The CSEP community hopes that this research will help inform decision-making during earthquake-related emergencies and, in doing so, assist in more effectively mitigating seismic risk.

The article is openly accessible at: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76243-7

The peer-reviewed reproducibility package, containing documented code, data, and other resources needed to fully replicate the figures, calculations and results discussed in this work, can found on Ocean Code at: https://codeocean.com/capsule/3685334/tree