ETAS Model
The Epidemic-Type-Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is a time-dependent model widely used by agencies and research teams to study the evolution of seismicity. The ETAS model belongs to the family of Hawkes (or self-exciting) point processes and it is usually specified by its conditional intensity which describes the rate at which earthquake occurs for a specific space-time-magnitude location.
The parameters mu, alpha, K, c, p, a, b of the ETAS model were calibrated with more than 4,700 earthquakes with magnitude greater or equal to 3.95 and less or equal to 6.0, reported by the ANSS catalog from January 1, 1898 to January 1, 1985. This parameters were used to produce daily (from 00:00:01 to 23:59:59) grid-based forecasts for events with magnitude above 3.95 occurring in California.